Hybrid war and hostage diplomacy: What’s next for Belarus?

In the latest episode of “EU Decoded”, we unpack the political developments in Belarus. At the turn of 2025-2026, the United States partly lifted and eased some of its sanctions on Belarusian exports, a key source of revenue for the regime. Shortly after, President Aliaksandr Lukashenka released 123* political prisoners, including prominent opposition figures Viktar Babaryka, Maria Kalesnikava and Ales Bialiatski.

What does this mean for the European Union’s policy towards Minsk? Should sanctions pressure continue while hundreds of political prisoners remain behind bars?

In this episode, we also examine Belarus’ ongoing alignment with Vladimir Putin’s Russia in the war against Ukraine, and the use of migration pressure at the EU’s borders as a hybrid warfare tactic.

Our guests:

EPP Group MEPs Andrzej Halicki and Paulius Saudargas

and

Anna Krasulina, Deputy Chairperson of the United Civil Party of Belarus

🎙️ Listen to the latest episode of “EU Decoded” to understand what these developments mean for Europe.

* This episode was recorded before Belarusian authorities released another 250 prisoners on 19 March.